The impact of CBAM on European premiums remains difficult to assess with precision. This stems from the fact that CBAM costs differ depending on the country of origin, the production route used, the product type, the actual emissions of the EU exporter and its upstream precursor supplier, their choice between full compliance or reliance on default values, and how much of these costs EU importers ultimately pass back to EU exporters.
Of these variables, the default values are the one known constant — they represent the upper bound of CBAM premiums, effectively the price of non-compliance without emissions measurement and verification. Where exporters do measure and verify emissions in line with CBAM rules, the actual premium will be lower depending on the actual emissions.
Currently, many aluminium producers are still leaning toward using default values rather than investing in a CBAM-compliant measurement and verification system.
The attached document sets out selected CBAM default values per tonne for specific products and countries of origin.
We at MM Markets can calculate the default-value costs for your specific EU export products for 2026 and 2027+, and if you multiply them by the export volumes, it provides the total costs of non-compliance for your EU exports. You can then compare this with the cost of compliance to make a financially sound decision about CBAM compliance.
